Wooing Women

Been doing a bit of reading about the impact of Palin on women voters in the campaign.  Obviously she has had a significant impact on the polls, closing quite a bit of the woman voter gap between McCain and Obama.  And the GOP base is now enthusiastic about McCain, somebody for whom they had not previously had much in the way of affection.  Many of them looked upon a McCain loss in 08 as positive thing for the party, forcing it into the wilderness for some purification.  Palin changes that dynamic substantially.

One argument that seems to be making the rounds is that Palin doesn't pick off Hillary voters because she is far more conservative than Hillary.  On its face, it sounds compelling and there is no doubt that hardcore Hillaryites are never going to vote for a Republican, pro-life NRA member.  But my sense from the polls is that Hillary had a lot of support from center-right women who were energized at the prospect of her becoming the first female President, just as many people will vote for Obama just because he is the first African-American president regardless of his politics.  They may have made up a small proportion of the 18 million who voted for her in the primaries, but I suspect that they are a more substantial percentage of the general electorate.  It's those voters who are likely to migrate to a McCain-Palin ticket.  Even a minority of these voters significantly changes the race.  What's more, women vote.  They actually show up on Election Day, middle-aged, middle class women in particular.  Since this election is really going to boil down to get out the vote, they are a big asset.