But it does represent an opportunity for McCain. This is the first time since the beginning of May that he has led in a national poll. He should be out there beating the hell out of this news.
Why? Because even though we know that this is just, as the article says, statistical noise, the public perception of this will be that Obama is not as inevitable as he has been made out to be. Most people won't think, "It's just one poll." They will just remember, "Wow. McCain is ahead of Obama??" And that's powerful.
As I said below, McCain needs to start playing Obama's game, which is a sophisticated one to manipulate public perception. Obama's whole campaign is structured around the conceit that he is, pretty much, already President. Call it the "Resistance is Futile" strategy. If McCain is out there pushing this, however, it starts to make Obama look a bit weak, especially as it comes so hard on the heels of his European PR extravaganza that was supposed to be the icing on the cake.
Cynical? Sure. But no more cynical than speaking to 200,000 foreigners in an attempt to make it look like you are already President.
McCain can put some dents in the public perception that Obama is unbeatable. He needs to start now.
But he won't.
5 comments:
Yeah, but the thing is, this only matters in the world of polling (as you correctly inferred); that is to say that that it matters in the world of people interested in the horse race. it's only powerful if you care about polls, which i believe an enormous majority of the public does not.
The 'perception that Obama is unbeatable' is created in polls and sunday talk shows and editorial colums. i think that has little to do with what the American public watches or reads or believes.
John -
I agree with you, but I think that the general narrative from the political junkies does seep out into the general consciousness. McCain is getting clobbered there because Obama is running a very effective campaign that provides a lot of images that make it seem like he is already President. McCain needs to start pushing back or he will not make up ground.
true. But I think Obama's success has less to do with images and more to do with how horribly the country is doing now, and how Americans experience it in a very real way through food and gas prices. the campaign plays a part, but only because the 'change' idea really resonates with conditions on the ground. base, not superstructure!
I think this is the first time I've ever seen JVA in blog comments! Ace!
"Does anyone remember laughter?"
- Robert Plant
JVA -
Agreed again on the conditions favoring Democrats, but I would argue that Obama's "change" theme is mostly just PR and image. He has no actual legislative record or executive experience that supports his talk of change. If he had some actual meat on his resume, he would be killing the Republican in these conditions. But he doesn't, so he stages huge PR events to make him seem "Presidential."
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