Thursday, July 31, 2008

What Happened?

Over the last week, the Obama to Win contract on Intrade is down almost 8%.  The current bid is now just below $0.60.  It started the week at $0.65.

Meanwhile, the McCain to Win contract has been surging (no pun intended).  It started the week at $0.325 and is now at $0.36, up 10%.

These are significant moves in such tight markets.  I'm not sure what is going on here. McCain was clobbered in the last news cycle with the glowing coverage of Obama's made-for-TV Europe jaunt.  I think his latest round of ads have been shrill and immature.  But something is happening to Obama.  My wild ass guess is that the "Obama is already President" shtick is starting to wear a little thin.  I certainly understand why the Obama campaign is pushing this strategy, but it runs the risk of making Obama seem massively arrogant and self-absorbed.  When the Top Ten list on Letterman is "Top Ten Signs Obama is Overconfident,"  it might be time to dial back on the chin-jutting-into-history playacting and stop treating the actual election like a formality.


Anonymous said...

And the race thing seems to be building against Obama as well.
So sayeth I.

Dave Cavalier said...

The race comment and his campaign's ludicrous explanation about the dollar bill comment sound a lot like Obama getting rattled and losing his cool. McCain, bizarrely, is putting out some very funny ads lately (go to You Tube and watch "The One, it;'s damned funny and also a bit frightening when you hear the ridiculous shit Obama says about himself) and Obama's tight-assed responses are not making him look good.

I don't know if the hapless McCain campaign crew just stumbled into this or if they are geniuses, but going after Obama's cult of personality with humor is a brilliant move because it turns his greatest strength into a weakness and it doesn't sound as shrill as previous McCain attacks.

The question with Obama has always been whether his big wave would crest before or after November 4th. It's still not clear what will happen, but that wave may be developing some foam at the top.