When Game Theory Goes Wrong

I was delighted to see that Harriet Miers has withdrawn her name from consideration to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. Leaving aside whether or not she was a conservative or not, I am delighted because I think she was simply not qualified for the highest court in the land. I'm sure she is a bright, hard-working attorney and she has had some success, but the Supreme Court is not like some ultra-cool partnership is the biggest law firm around. And I have no interest in a nominee who would spend the first five or so years getting up to speed on the details of Constitutional law.

When Miers was announced, Bush claimed that he had asked other women to be nominees and "several" had turned him down. I always thought this was an interesting thing for the President to state and I suspected that it was a planned gambit on his part. It implied that Democratic Senators were so over-the-top in their questioning of John Roberts that none of the qualified female candidates even wanted to be nominated. The message there was that Miers had to be confirmed because there were no other options available if they wanted a female nominee.

Interestingly, this ties in, just a little bit, with game theory work that won Thomas C. Schelling a share of the 2005 Nobel Prize for Economics. Schelling pointed out that in negotiations one side can sometimes gain an advantage if it limits its options in advance, even if limiting those options appears to be contrary to that side's own self-interest. What he was describing was the notion of "pre-commitment." If I burn the bridge behind me, you know that I am serious about staying on this side of the river. That creates a much different negotiation.

Of course, in this case, the strategy didn't work, but for an interesting reason. Bush was not involved in a two-party negotiation. By limiting his choices, he inadvertently alienated his own side and that is what brought this benighted nomination down.

So what does he do now? Claim that one of those women suddenly changed their mind? Go with a male candidate? (Note to Moonbat Tinfoil brigade: Yes. This was all a Rovian plan to nominate a male candidate.)